Billions of people around the world woke up this morning to a Britain forever changed. After years of speculation and months of campaigning, the UK’s exit from the European Union has now been confirmed. But what will Brexit really look like? And what is the timetable? Who will lead Britain through the negotiations? How will business respond? How will it affect Britain’s place in the world?
Bringing together a panel of experts, chaired by Daisy McAndrew, which included Daily Mail columnist Andrew Pierce, Associate Editor at the Daily Mirror Kevin Maguire, Senior Investment Director at Investec Elissa Bayer and Pagefield Advisory Board Chair and former UK Ambassador to the US Sir Christopher Meyer – Pagefield hosted an event to discuss these issues, looking at the next steps for Britain as it heads out of the EU.
Heading for the Brexit
Kevin Maguire argued that still, in reality, no one knows what Brexit might look like. Vote Leave had promised the electorate the moon, he said, but had no idea how to deliver it. He claimed that calls from Brexiteers for Cameron to remain leader came not from a sense of partly loyalty, rather, in the absence of a Brexit plan, it was in an attempt to slow the process down and regather. He had a simple message to the leaders of the Leave campaign: if you break it, you fix it.
Sir Christopher Meyer noted that the Referendum itself was not legally binding. It would only become so once recognised by parliament – then would come the triggering of Article 50: the start of the formal two year process where Britain’s exit from the EU will be negotiated. Cameron has already said that he would leave that to his successor, likely to be in place by October, however the EU’s leadership has already demanded the UK activate the Article as soon as possible. There are no signs that the UK Government will be in a rush to trigger Article 50 though – even Vote Leave have said there is no need to trigger it until informal negotiations have taken place – potentially lasting years.
Sir Christopher Meyer argued that it would be in Britain’s interest to delay the activation of Article 50 for as long as possible, giving the Government the widest possible window to negotiate effectively with Europe’s leaders before the formal process begins. The particulars of Article 50 mean that a significant proportion of the formal negotiations will be carried out without a UK voice – the final terms will eventually be agreed by the remaining members of the union without Britain at the table.
Finding a leader
Cameron announced his plans to resign just after 8am this morning, to the apparent surprise of even some of his closest colleagues, saying that a new leader of the Conservative Party would be in place before Conference in October. So who are the contenders?
Boris Johnson was the first name on the panellists’ lips, but Sir Christopher Meyer doubted his ability to master detail – something that would be essential for the Brexit negotiations. Kevin Maguire also challenged Johnson’s credentials, predicting that he would not be able to perform under heavy scrutiny. Andrew Pierce did not see this as such an issue, after all, Boris has “rock star” appeal and connects with real people.
Sir Christopher argued that only Theresa May has the ability to lead Britain out of the EU. Maguire backed her chances also, adding that she had played a very canny game during the Referendum. By steering clear of the spotlight during the campaign, he said, she has avoided severing ties with either side of the Party. Pierce did not want to dismiss the possibility of Michael Gove throwing his hat into the ring. He said that despite having ruled himself out, Gove is a popular and able politician and shouldn’t be underestimated.
Labouring through
Kevin Maguire bemoaned the Labour Party’s inability to deal with the potent issue of immigration, a topic that clearly featured high on the list of concerns for voters in the North of England. He described their strategy as having been based on trying to move the conversation away from fears about the impact on communities, but in doing so they had given credence to the perception that they are ignoring people’s concerns. The referendum campaign lifted the lid on the damage which this issue has caused the party and a route to recovery is not clear with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm – although this may change over the coming days as Corbyn faces a potential leadership challenge.
Taking care of Business
Elissa Bayer explained that business does not always wait for politics to resolve itself. Calling the bluff of businesses threatening to leave the UK in the event of Brexit may have been misguided, with some having already left, and others now actively considering it. She argued that big business will still want to HQ itself in the single market, perhaps making Ireland a more attractive option than an isolated UK. In a world that is moving quickly and in uncertain ways – we could have a Prime Minister Johnson and President Trump by the end of the year – she said business is being forced to make big decisions rapidly. However, she added that the most important thing that has been missing from this debate is how Brexit works in practice; if it results in better, more intelligent regulation then business may of course react favourably.
Beyond our Boarders
It was clear from the panel’s comments that the vote to leave will inevitably have a serious impact on Britain’s standing in the world. Sir Christopher Meyer asserted that there is not a single country in the world which will not be affected by Brexit. It is no secret that America’s policy on Britain’s membership of the EU has been that it must remain and act as an intermediary between the two markets. As demonstrated by the views expressed in the US media, Brexit represents a clear threat to American interests – the question now is how will they respond?
Sir Christopher Meyer predicted a shift in America’s diplomatic priorities to other European markets. With a competitive business environment and a solid financial services framework and, Germany is the most likely candidate for this.
The issue of another referendum on Scotland’s membership of the United Kingdom also presents some interesting challenges from an international relations perspective. With her trademark cautiousness, Nicola Sturgeon has kept her cards close to her chest on this issue, presumably while the SNP work out whether there is political appetite or public support. But even if Scotland does push to break away from the UK and integrate into the EU, it is unlikely that European leaders would support them. As Sir Christopher noted, the EU will be cautious about supporting Scottish independence for fears of provoking similar reactions in Catalonia, the Basque region and even Bavaria (although to a lesser extent).
