America went to the polls last week for the first time since November 2020 and, after a tense week of counting ballots and calling races, Congress will be divided, with the Democrats having successfully held the Senate and the Republicans taking a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
Pagefield’s Ben Turner, who spent a year studying Constitutional Law in America while campaigning at the Iowa Caucus, has analysed the results:
Expect more gridlock
While a projected Democratic gain of one in the Senate will do no harm to President Biden’s chances of passing key legislation, Democratic Senators who have proved tricky to negotiate with – including Senators Manchin of West Virginia and Sinema of Arizona – will continue to hold influence.
Winning the runoff in Georgia will help, but further policy wins will require the kind of delicate bipartisan dealmaking that has sabotaged the more ambitious elements of Biden’s legislative agenda in the Senate to date.
Now to the House. It may yet take several days to confirm the eventual makeup of the lower chamber, but the Republican majority looks set to be razor thin. With control of the House and the Speaker’s chair they’ll be able to further frustrate Biden’s agenda as President, particularly given the ever-influential ‘Ways and Means’ committee, the chief tax-writing committee in Congress, will be firmly in GOP hands.
Abortion drives the Democratic base to the polls
The recent Supreme Court decision to overturn the landmark Roe v Wade judgement has clearly galvanised voters in these elections. Abortion took centre stage as a key issue in state and congressional elections up and down the country.
Various polls found it second only to the economy in its importance for voters. It even affected the ballot outside local and congressional races, with Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, Montana and California joining Kansas in passing amendments to protect abortion access.
Public opposition to the Supreme Court’s attempts to restrict abortion access, in the form of votes at the ballot box, will come as a relief to Biden’s party. The real test for Democrats though will be to capitalise on this resistance and use it to strengthen their support base for 2024.
Election denial hurts Republican candidates
America continues to deal with the political aftermath of the 2020 election, with one consequence being a renewed effort by the Republican party to place officials alleging electoral fraud in control of elections going forward. According to CNN, twelve such candidates ran for Secretary of State in a state expected to be competitive in 2024, with eight of them losing. Judging by these results, we may see some hesitancy to campaign on the issue from Republican candidates looking towards 2024.
Pollsters continue to struggle
On a night of ups and downs for both parties, one unanimous loser was the pollsters. In what was widely seen as an unexpected result against predictions of a ‘Red Wave’, pollsters once again found themselves on the wrong side of the result.
Whilst midterms are generally harder to predict than elections in Presidential years, factors such as a stronger-than-expected turnout by 18-29-year-olds and the diminished impact of Trump endorsements wreaked havoc on predictions.
Trump in trouble?
One knock-on effect of a disappointing election for Republicans looks to be a growing doubt in President Trump’s ability to win over the American populace. Despite running at a disapproval rate of more than 50%, Biden was still able to outperform any of his six predecessors in his first national electoral test, with Republicans already pointing fingers at Trump himself.
There’s a long way to go, but this development could have an impact on Trump’s bid to win the Republican nomination in 2024 following his announcement to run.
One challenger to look out for? Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, who has already signalled his intention to run while producing one of the strongest results of the night for Republicans, increasing his majority by over 19%. We’ll have to wait and see if Trump’s latest nickname – ‘Ron DeSanctimonious’ – catches on.
