Is Rishi a ‘New Hope’ for the Conservatives? – Pagefield’s Reflections

By Tom Riley

Thursday 27th October

While Chancellor, asked what job he’d rather do if not in politics, Sunak answered with “Jedi”. Though while all his predecessors – Truss, Johnson and May – have all promised to be the Conservative Party’s ‘New Hope’, Rishi Sunak arrives at Downing Street with business-like realism and an economy to rebuild.

Despite his youthfulness at the age of 42, Sunak is far from inexperienced. After a career in the city, Sunak has rapidly ascended the ranks and was part of the Conservative ‘ticket’ which brought the party a huge majority in 2019. During the pandemic, Sunak quickly became one of the most popular politicians in the land by keeping people paid as the economy stalled.

However, it all unravelled at the start of this year when the tax status of Sunak’s wife, a billionaire heiress, came under the public spotlight. And as Johnson’s government’s dissolved in the face of the ‘partygate’ scandal, Sunak’s resignation led to a Tory leadership contest – which he lost to Liz Truss.

As it turned out, Truss’ vision for growth via huge tax cuts, especially for the wealthy, was met by derision from all corners of the country – including her own party. She lasted just 44 days before standing down, leaving behind an economy in an even worse state than when she took it on.

While he has reason to be confident, the challenge ahead of Sunak is going to be no less difficult. The country is still involved deeply supporting Ukraine against Russia, the wallets of UK consumers continue to be squeezed, and the global stage is awash with a variety of existential threats, like supply shortages.

The new Prime Minister is acutely aware of people’s desire for stability and the ‘mistakes made’ by Truss’ cabinet, which is why he used his first speech to Tory MPs to say, ‘we need to unite or die’. Arriving at Downing Street, Sunak pledged to put “economic stability and confidence at the heart of this government’s agenda”.

But what does that mean in practice. Should we now expect the government to trudge slowly forward to a probable electoral defeat in 2024?

Don’t count on it. Looking at the frontline Sunak has put together, which leans both on his supporters and former ministers from all Conservative eras, what we can draw out is this is a Prime Minister who’ll be operating as Chief Executive of UK Plc.

Where Truss made appointments based on loyalty, it’s clear that the choices Sunak has made have been based on two values: ability and discipline – the current cabinet consists of five former government whips.

Big beasts like Michael Gove, Therese Coffey, and Jeremy Hunt have returned, widely considered by those who work with them as the most competent ministers of their generation, as well as rising stars like Kemi Badenoch and Michelle Donelan.

This is a dynamic group of diverse opinion and professional competence – the sort of leaders you might expect to see at the AGM of a FTSE 100 company – and certainly not seen since the days of David Cameron.

In good news for Sunak, his new team get to start from zero, as Jeremy Hunt has already made most of the difficult u-turns in the final days of Truss – a new financial statement is now expected on 17th November.

It’s likely that to restart the UK’s engine, Sunak and his cabinet will be pragmatic with their agenda, which may mean being very open to businesses investing into the UK, ensuring the levelling up agenda is delivered upon, and supporting innovation that creates jobs with tax reliefs.

In the coming days and weeks, after junior ministerial appointments are finalised, it will be telling to see if Team Sunak – which has always been a strong collection of savvy advisors compared to his predecessors – will also relaunch engagement forums with business, deploying a listening ear rather than a megaphone.

It won’t be exciting like the ‘Growth’ splash that came with Truss, but it’s what the UK needs. However, a dull Sunak won’t win back all the lost voters, and he’ll be conscious of the party unravelling at the sides again – especially as Labour now have a gaping 30+ point lead in the polls.

Overcoming this may be too high for Sunak, so perhaps the best he can do is bring the Tories back from total apocalypse. Whatever happens now, the government only has one more lifeline in this game of ‘Who Wants to be Ministerial’, so Sunak needs to make it count.

 

The new Cabinet

Unlike Truss who only promoted her staunch supporters, Sunak has made it clear that he wants a broad Cabinet that involves his backers but also those formerly of Truss’ parish. This goes to the core of his pledge for unity and ensuring a steady ship for the whole Conservative Party to get behind.

We’ve set out below our thoughts on the political weight of the key 15 cabinet players and their likelihood to disrupt policy before the next general election.

 

Rishi Sunak: Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury

Political weight: 10/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 0/10

Rishi is one of the youngest Prime Minister’s though brings more experience in frontline politics than many of his longer serving cabinet colleagues. His unique selling point as leader is that he predicted the challenges that would follow Truss’s economic plan and has so far delivered on his pledge to bring stability to government, focusing everyone back on the 2019 manifesto on which the Tories were elected.

Sunak has gained the overwhelming support of colleagues and is in a strong position across his party. But he faces several existential challenges ahead – including a powerful threat from Labour – which some commentators wonder whether he’ll be able to navigate.

 

Jeremy Hunt: Chancellor of the Exchequer

Political weight: 8/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 2/10

Jeremy Hunt has retained his position as chancellor – having first been appointed by Truss following the sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng – having endorsed him in the Conservative leadership bid in the Summer.

A big beast from the Cameron era, Hunt is known for his centre-ground conservative politics. Recently Hunt has been working hard to calm financial markets and has already rowed back much of his predecessors ‘mini-Budget’. He is the fifth person to hold the office of Chancellor in a little over three years (and the fourth in 3 months), so he’ll be working hard to make the spreadsheets add up, perhaps rather than furthering his own ambitions.

 

James Cleverly: Foreign Secretary

Political weight: 6/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 3/10

There were questions about whether Cleverly would keep his position as Foreign Secretary – it was no secret that Sunak’s fellow leadership contender, Penny Mordaunt, was keen for it. But faced with the prospect many MPs made it known removing Cleverly would be a mistake. He has been kept in post by Sunak, despite backing Boris’s return and playing a key role in Truss’ administration.

Cleverly will likely remain focussed on tackling Russian aggression but also helping to rebuild Britain’s economic image internationally.

 

Dominic Raab: Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary

Political weight: 9/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 4/10

A loyal Sunak supporter who was a central figure backing him during both leadership campaigns. Raab has now built up a lot of cabinet experience – he previously held the position of the Deputy Prime Minister under Johnson. We do not expect to see him rocking the boat, but rather being one of the key deckhands keeping ministers on message.

However, his role at the Department of Justice will not be plain sailing. Over the Summer we’ve already seen walkouts by barristers which have only made the court backlog even worse. Given the probable spending constraints, it’s unlikely we’ll see huge new investment at Justice, though deals may have to be done to reduce the backlog.

 

Suella Braverman: Home Secretary

Political weight: 8/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 5/10 (previously would have been 10/10!)

The most controversial appointment Sunak has made is that of his Home Secretary, Braverman – who only resigned from the position a week beforehand under Truss over a ‘security incident’. Her reappointment, despite clearly breaking the rules, has caused plenty of disquiet across the backbenches. But given Braverman threw her support behind Sunak, rather than Boris as many has expected, she’s been rewarded.

While at the Home Office previously, Braverman had been taking a tough line on immigration, and it’s expected her new term will be no different. She will play a key role delivering new policies that deter immigrants from coming to the UK, often through dangerous methods, and for businesses who desire economic migrants during the employment shortages, time will only tell if her hard-line views will be softened under Sunak – the deeper into Sunak’s premiership, the less likely he will be to honour the deal they came to, if she steps out of line.

 

Ben Wallace: Defence Secretary

Political weight: 9/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 2/10

Just like during the Summer Conservative leadership contest, many MPs called on Wallace to stand. He’s widely viewed as a solid minister who, given his leadership against Russian aggression, has risen in popularity amongst the public and Conservative Party members. Wallace backed Truss during the first leadership campaign, a decision that kept him his job, and despite ‘leaning towards Boris’ this time round, he again has kept his position. It is believed that removing him would hinder the relationship with Ukraine and potentially help Russia.

Wallace is not expected to establish new positions in his role, though it’s expected he’ll remain in the public eye as the war in Ukraine continues and we may see more hawkish statements from him related to China – thought, it’s expected he’ll be largely quiet.

 

Grant Shapps: Business Secretary

Political weight: 7/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 3/10

Just last week, Shapps replaced Suella Braverman as Home Secretary after she breached the ministerial code, and spent less than a week in post before Sunak’s first Cabinet reshuffle as Prime Minister. As an early supporter of Sunak’s leadership bid, Shapps was rewarded by being promoted to Secretary of State at the UK government’s largest Department – BEIS.

Shapps enters the role with a number of immediate priorities – reimposing the ban on fracking, and overseeing the government’s Energy Price Guarantee scheme. A former Transport Secretary, Shapps is considered one of the Conservative Party’s most effective communicators, and has even developed a reputation as ‘master of the spreadsheet’ through his assessment of how many Conservative rebels were planning on bringing down the governments of Theresa May and Boris Johnson.

 

Mark Harper: Transport Secretary

Political weight: 3/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 5/10

Sunak’s ascension to Prime Ministerial office has resulted in Mark Harper becoming a Secretary of State for the first time in his political career. Despite having been an MP for 17 years, Harper’s biggest role until now came as a Chief Whip in the final years of David Cameron’s administration.

Harper is a well-respected, Eurosceptic with close ties to the One Nation wing of the Conservative Party. A close ally of Rishi Sunak, Harper has been given the keys to the Department of Transport off the back of a summer marked by nationwide industrial strike action, with no breakthrough found yet between the government and the RMT/Aslef unions. Harper will need to navigate the ongoing dispute, largely centred around the modernisation of the railways, and keep growing support for the union position at bay.

 

Mel Stride: Work and Pensions Secretary

Political weight: 7/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 2/10

A former Chair of the influential Treasury Select Committee and former Chief Whip under Theresa May, Mel Stride has received a significant promotion to the front benches after being dismissed from his former role as Leader of the House of Commons by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Having backed Rishi Sunak’s first Conservative leadership in July from his position as Chairman of the Treasury Committee, Stride’s declaration of Sunak as an “economic heavyweight” and the only candidate with the ability to beat Keir Starmer has seen him heavily rewarded.

Upon entering the role, Stride will face immediate pressure over raising benefits in line with inflation while juggling the need for fiscal restraint in the Department to repair the Conservative’s image of being a safe pair of hands for the economy. In reality, this decision will likely be made on Stride’s behalf in the Treasury and No10.

 

Therese Coffey: Environment Secretary

Political weight: 7/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 6/10

A long-standing ally of Truss, Coffey hadn’t backed Sunak for the leadership but has been kept on as part of his drive for unity. She is a well-regarded in Westminster as a competent operator, with commentators suggesting in recent weeks she ended up running much of the government as Truss fell by the wayside.

The environment brief is a demotion for Coffey though will not be without its challenges or opportunities. Despite the economic challenges facing Brits, climate issues remain high-up the agenda. Likewise, one challenge the Conservatives will need to tackle is the state of farming in the UK, which was severely impacted by the UK’s exit from the EU. This could provide Coffey ample opportunity to shine and potentially set new directions on policy.

 

Steve Barclay: Health & Social Care Secretary

Political weight: 6/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 2/10

Barclay first served as a Government Whip then Economic Secretary to the Treasury, which is a natural fit considering his strong financial background.  He then had his first SoS role in the Department for Exiting the EU from November 2018 to January 2020 – decisions which will likely haunt him for the rest of his career. He moved back to the Treasury as Chief Secretary for 18 months, and then onto the most senior minister in the Cabinet Office.

Barclay is known to have his feet on the ground and be a straight shooter. He knows the system well having served in a variety of Departments since he first served as a Minister in 2016. He is well-liked within the party. On his third return to the Department of Health & Social Care, his second time as Minister, he is likely to go in and concentrate on developing the strategy and workplan he put in place during his last stint between July – September 2022.

 

Gillian Keegan: Education Secretary

Political weight: 5/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 2/10

As the only degree-level apprentice in the House of Commons, Gillian has long championed more high-quality apprenticeships. She’s also publicly said that special educational needs and disabilities is a cause close to her heart, having a nephew with Down’s Syndrome.

Her reputation is similar to Barclay’s in that she’s more interested in strategy than controversial headlines, and that she is a dedicated MP to her constituency Chichester.

However, she will not be welcomed with open arms by the education sector, who are quite frankly fed up. Five education secretaries in the past year, and ten in the last decade, has left them calling out for continuity and a long-term plan. Schools are calling out that the fast churn of political leaders shows that the Party “doesn’t care about children” and shows a “shocking lack of priority and investment”.  One teacher tweeted: “It is weird when we’ve had more education secretaries this year than working glue sticks in my class at this point of the term.”

 

Michelle Donelan: Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Secretary

Political weight: 2/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 2/10

Donelan is diligent, bright, and ambitious. She will make things happen – but tows the party line and isn’t expected to ruffle her new boss’ feathers.

Despite her still relatively junior experience she’ll be faced with a heavy in-tray with the Online Safety Bill and reviewing the Data Protection Bill. Likewise, she will be responsible for pushing through the privatisation of Channel 4, discussions around the BBC licence fee, plus the energy crisis and recovery from a particularly difficult period for the entertainment industry during the pandemic – it’s a crucial time to be UK’s new culture secretary.

Cultural figures hoping for a more professional tone and less culture war rhetoric may be disappointed, though. Donelan has previously criticised “cancel culture” and “woke bullies” and while her views in relation to other parts of the culture brief are relatively unknown, she has previously commented on the BBC’s licence fee as an “unfair tax” that should be “scrapped” which will no doubt, be sending alarm bells around broadcasting house. But her experience working in the entertainment industry – having worked for the History Channel as well as for World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) – is warming the arts and culture industry to her.

 

Michael Gove: Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Secretary

Political weight: 10/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 9/10

Known within Whitehall as the relentless reformer, Gove has returned to his old (considering the current political climate!) stomping ground at 2 Marsham Street.

Gove’s first stint as the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities saw him oversee the passage of the Building Safety Act 2022 and the Leasehold Reform (Ground Rent) Act 2022, both significant pieces of legislation with wide-reaching consequences across the UK’s housing market. During this time, he also directed the creation of the Building Safety Fund and the Developer Pledge, both of which have sought to fund the remediation of cladding-affected high-rise buildings in the wake of the Grenfell Tower fire.

His return to the Department combined with Rishi Sunak’s pledge to uphold Boris Johnson’s levelling up commitments, will see this policy area come back to the fore. Additionally, Gove has taken on ‘Minister for Intergovernmental Relations’, perhaps meaning his influence will sow into other departments.

 

Kemi Badenoch: Trade Secretary and Women & Equalities Minister

Political weight: 7/10

Likelihood to disrupt policy: 9/10

Having been the surprise star of the Conservative Party leadership election after being consistently rated by pollsters, Badenoch’s influence has been recognised by Truss and now Sunak by having her in Cabinet as Trade Secretary. Sunak added Minister for Women & Equalities to her portfolio – both positions which Truss held during Johnson’s premiership.

She has had a stratospheric rise from her first position as a Minister for Equalities in February 2020 and then a Minister in the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities between 16 September 2021.

A recurring criticism Badenoch was faced with during her leadership campaign was around her lack of experience so the Trade brief will be a key opportunity for her to prove to the doubters that she has the competency to run a big department. One way to do this – which will be the top of her agenda – is to secure the historic trade deal with India, long regarded as one of the biggest prizes following Brexit – as well as revive trade talks with the US.

She is definitely one to watch as a future serious contender for Leader of the Party.

Related News & Insight