Our senior team look at the current political landscape and assess the electoral prospects for the four highest polling UK parties.
Conservatives – Oliver Foster
Pagefield Chief Executive, Conservative Party Member (on and off since 1996) and former assistant to a British MEP
Biggest strength
So far, absolute crystal clarity and message discipline since day one of the Boris government. In contrast to the previous ‘tightrope’ administration, Boris’ Government has picked a lane and is sticking with it…for now.
Biggest weakness
The Tories have not done enough to tackle their image problem as a party of wealthy southerners, and this will not help them tackle the threat posed by the Brexit Party.
Eye-catching policy
Expect lots more announcements on the NHS and health spending from the team that brought you the “£350m a week” slogan. Boris and his team have a point to prove and, with an election looming, the NHS is going to stay in the headlines.
Assessment of leader
It was a bruising leadership election campaign for the Party, but Boris has done a good job of impressing his detractors (including appointing some of them to his Government!), soothing tensions and moving the narrative on.
Rising star(s)
Rishi Sunak’s promotion to Chief Secretary to the Treasury in Boris’ reshuffle will be a crucial test for him, but his intelligence, drive and political compass stand him in very good stead if he can quickly prove he deserves his place around the Cabinet table.
Best way for business to engage
Brexit may be the only game in town, but Johnson’s team know they need to do everything they can to win back the business community. Now is the time to persuade the Government with any eye-catching policies that may not have been attempted before.
Worst way for business to engage
Whether you believe the Government is bluffing or not, public pronouncements criticising ‘no deal’ will not improve your relationship with this Government – certainly not in the short term. By all means express them clearly, and with evidence, in private, however.
Wild card prediction
Before the (almost) inevitable election in the Autumn, the Tories will agree a pact with the Brexit Party, enabling the Tories a free run where they have candidates with strong Brexit credentials. Farage’s ego may get in the way, but extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
Liberal Democrats – Geoff Duggan
Pagefield Partner, Liberal Democrat Party Member
Biggest strength
A combination of a clear position on Brexit, a fresh and electable party leader, momentum from recent electoral successes and some high-profile defections. After years in the post-coalition doldrums they look and feel like a party people can vote for again.
Biggest weakness
Recent success is hinged on the poor performance of the two main political parties. A sudden change in leadership or direction from either of the main parties – particularly related to Brexit – could quickly take the wind out of their sails.
Eye-catching policy
Bollocks to Brexit.
Assessment of leader
Smart, energetic and normal. A breath of fresh air compared to Johnson and Corbyn.
Rising star(s)
There is plenty to choose from among the dynamic and diverse intake from recent election success. In London, Mayoral candidate, Siobhan Benita looks well placed to take the fight to Sadiq Khan in 2020.
Best way for business to engage
With the Tories seemingly heading full throttle for a no-deal Brexit and a Labour party committed to nationalisation of key industries, the Lib Dems – helped by new business spokesperson Chuka Umunna – are naturally emerging as the pro-business party. Enterprises of all shapes and sizes will be pushing at an open door.
Worst way for business to engage
Underestimating their importance and the influential role they could play in a future government.
Wild card prediction
An autumn election sees them restore the number of seats to pre-coalition levels, helped by a Remain alliance and more high-profile defections from Labour and Tories. While there’ll be no rose garden moment this time around, they’ll play a key role in preventing Brexit catastrophe and saving the union.
Labour – Rebecca Lury
Pagefield Partner, Labour Party Member and Deputy Leader of Southwark Council
Biggest strength
Labour retains a large membership base, many of whom are out on the doorstep every single weekend regardless of election cycles. It won’t be difficult to translate this group into an effective election campaign machine at short notice if, or when, an election is called.
Biggest weakness
Internal crises being played out in the media give a perception of a lack of control from the centre, with Labour having to work harder with the media in the face of multiple stories breaking about antisemitism, the Labour Brexit policy and a second independence referendum in Scotland, amongst others.
Eye-catching policy
Labour’s plans to revive the high street – aimed at some of the hardest hit parts of the country, where the Party needs to win votes, and showing their commitment to local government by putting power in their hands to turn high streets around.
Assessment of leader
Whilst the polls might show the Conservatives ahead, Corbyn remains the king of social media, holding his own against Boris Johnson’s online campaign, with Corbyn’s posts being shared far more often as found in research conducted by Buzzfeed. He also boasts 1.5 million Facebook followers, alongside 2 million on Twitter, providing a simple and powerful route to engaging that large membership base.
Rising star(s)
A great duo in Rebecca Long-Bailey and Laura Pidcock pushing Labour’s business agenda from the Shadow Business team.
Best way for business to engage
Demonstrating the consumer-friendly policies that your organisation can promote, and how you will support the UK economy for the many, not the few.
Worst way for business to engage
Ignoring the possibility of the Labour Party winning the next General Election and believing they remain completely anti-business.
Wild card prediction
Labour winning back seats we haven’t won since 1997 in unexpected places.
Brexit Party – Mark Gallagher
Pagefield Founder, former Conservative Party Member (until early 2019) and now supporter of the Brexit Party
Biggest strength
The Brexit Party is a start-up with a small and tightly knit leadership group at the top – so it’s fresh and nimble in everything it does.
Biggest weakness
Association with the old UKIP, which has been lost to extremism. However, the diversity of the Brexit Party’s candidates list and the freshness of its brand have been very effective in putting clear blue water between the two unambiguously pro-Brexit parties.
Eye-catching policy
Goodbye Brussels, hello world.
Assessment of leader
The most effective political leader in the UK since Margaret Thatcher.
Rising star(s)
Take a look at the 29 Brexit Party MEPs, the 70 Brexit Party candidates for the Euros and the 600+ parliamentary candidates ready to fight the next General Election. Contrary to Metropolitan opinion, the Brexit Party has a breadth, depth and diversity of talent that knocks its rivals for six.
Best way for business to engage
Setting out how Government can assist business to turn Global Britain into a reality.
Worst way for business to engage
Thinking of Brexit as a depressing mitigation exercise.
Wild card prediction
A General Election pact between the Conservative Party and the Brexit Party under a ‘Brexit coalition’ banner, with the Tories stepping aside in up to 50 seats that the Brexit Party could win but the Conservatives could not (especially in Wales and the North) and the Brexit Party not standing against pro-Boris Tories in the rest of the country.
