As a new year dawns, it’s become something of a Pagefield tradition to make our predictions about the year ahead for Westminster and the wider world. Here, some of the team share their thoughts on what 2016 will bring.
Ben Winter
• Who will succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor?
It will be a tight election but Sadiq Khan will come out on top. Labour can rely on London’s more left-leaning electorate to get their man into the job.
• How will Labour perform in the local and devolved elections?
Wales: Labour will lose between 3-5 seats, leaving them several seats short of a majority in the Assembly. The big gains could come from UKIP, who are planning to throw a lot of resource into their campaign, challenging Labour head on.
Scotland: There is little doubt that the SNP will retain control of the Scottish Parliament. The question is how badly Labour will do. Recent polling has had Labour down approximately 12 seats, with the SNP increasing their majority slightly.
England: Forecasts don’t look much better for Labour in England. Some expect that the party will lose approximately 200 of its 1,200 seats and control of up to six councils.
• Will there be an EU referendum this year?
Cameron will obviously want to claim victory in negotiations in 2016 to halt the momentum of the ‘out’ campaign. However, it is unlikely that he will be able to negotiate conditions any time soon that will appease euro sceptics and give the ‘in’ campaign the boost it needs. The referendum will be put back to 2017.
• What do you currently think will be the result of the referendum?
A tight result, but the electorate will decide to stay in the EU.
• Will all of the Party Leaders still have their jobs at the end of 2016?
Corbyn and Farage’s jobs look most precarious. Following yet another election where UKIP fail to make the gains expected, Farage will be ousted by the party. If Labour performs as badly as predicted Corbyn can expect a serious challenge to his leadership. However I find myself agreeing with Stephen Bush, who recently wrote in a Staggers blog: “only God, Corbyn, or the membership will be able to move Corbyn.”
• Who will be the US President? And who will they defeat?
Clinton will be President, defeating a hugely aggressive and subversive Trump campaign convincingly.
• How many gold medals will GB win in Rio?
Funding cuts will take their toll – Team GB to win no more than 20 gold medals
• Who will win Euro 2016?
England, of course.
• Wildcard Prediction
Heathrow expansion abandoned following failed emissions tests and resulting widespread campaigning. Back to the drawing board with another government commissioned report. Gatwick chosen for expansion. Boris quits politics, buys his own island and begins construction of a new airport himself.
Sam Oakley
• Who will succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor?
Sadiq Khan. Personally, I would love Zac Goldsmith to continue to buck the assumption that London is an overwhelmingly Labour city. However, given the momentum of Labour in the capital, it’s hard to see past Sadiq – and it’s certainly no bad thing for a city like London to have someone from the BAME community as its leader.
• How will Labour perform in the local and devolved elections?
Not well enough to vindicate Corbyn, but not badly enough to write him off. The SNPs dominance in Scotland will be further ingrained, but Labour will remain the second largest party (just), and will limp over the line in Wales.
• Will there be an EU referendum this year?
No – it will be in early spring 2017.
• What do you currently think will be the result of the referendum?
If it were today, we’d stay in the EU. Another summer of migrant crises across the EU could have a damaging effect for the Remain campaign and there is every chance we may end up leaving. Turnout is likely to be very poor, however, which plays in to Remain’s hands.
• Will all of the Party Leaders still have their jobs at the end of 2016?
Yes – only Corbyn can remove Corbyn and only an EU referendum defeat can remove Cameron.
• Who will be the US President? And who will they defeat?
Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump. Although, if Marco Rubio is in the running it will be a much closer race.
• How many gold medals will GB win in Rio?
22.
• Who will win Euro 2016?
Germany.
• Wildcard Prediction
Leonardo di Caprio to finally win a Best Actor Oscar.
Josh Lambkin
• Who will succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor?
This will effectively become a personality contest and Zac Goldsmith will win by a whisker
• How will Labour perform in the local and devolved elections?
Badly! They will struggle to make inroads in Scotland and Wales despite a very poor SNP record. There is also talk of a Lib Dem resurgence in the locals which will damage them further.
• Will there be an EU referendum this year?
2017 is far more likely given the magnitude of the renegotiation task.
• What do you currently think will be the result of the referendum?
Out! Currently, the polls predict a narrow victory for the “IN” campaign but there is plenty of time for more migration chaos, self-destruction and civil unrest (particularly in Germany)
• Will all of the Party Leaders still have their jobs at the end of 2016?
Corbyn is already proving to be more resilient than many people thought, Cameron still has plenty left to do before he steps aside and Nicola Sturgeon will remain strong after the Scottish elections. Short answer = Yes.
• Who will be the US President? And who will they defeat?
Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination to be defeated by Hillary Clinton in the election.
• How many gold medals will GB win in Rio?
32
• Who will win Euro 2016?
France
• Wildcard Prediction
Boris Johnson will be given a cabinet job as Education Secretary in return for his support of the “IN” campaign – Latin and Ancient Greek will become compulsory subjects in the GCSE curriculum.
Leonie Martin
• Who will succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor?
Sadiq Khan
• How will Labour perform in the local and devolved elections?
Badly
• Will there be an EU referendum this year?
No
• What do you currently think will be the result of the referendum?
We’d vote to leave
• Will all of the Party Leaders still have their jobs at the end of 2016?
No – Corbyn won’t survive 2016.
• Who will be the US President? And who will they defeat?
Hilary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump
• How many gold medals will GB win in Rio?
24
• Who will win Euro 2016?
Germany
• Wildcard Prediction
Andy Murray will win two grand slams
Marie Lorimer
• Will there be an EU referendum this year?
Yes.
• What do you currently think will be the result of the referendum?
At the moment, remaining in the EU is a tough sell. Economic struggles are prevalent and the politically charged issue of immigration leaves countries ideologically divided. Without a strategy to deal with incoming migrants and refugees, countries remain insular in their approach. Although the argument for leaving may mobilise people on an emotional ground, I think the innate common sense of British voters will choose to stay within the EU.
• Will all of the Party Leaders still have their jobs at the end of 2016?
All party leaders will still have their jobs, apart from Nigel Farage. Douglas Carswell’s campaign to oust the leader will probably gain some traction within the next year. If the UKIP members standing for the Welsh Assembly are not elected, this may be the catalyst for a coup.
• Who will be the US President? And who will they defeat?
My money is on Hillary. Despite some recent bad press, she is still ahead in the polls. Clinton has a wealth of experience, is preferred by the establishment and has the funding to boot. I’m going to unequivocally dismiss the chances of Donald Trump, violent beginnings have violent ends. He’ll crash and burn eventually.
• How many gold medals will GB win in Rio?
Without the home advantage I can’t imagine Britain topping their stellar 29 in 2012, I predict 20 golds in Rio.
• Who will win Euro 2016?
Germany. They come off the back of winning the last World Cup with a strong footballing system and plethora of technically sound players.
Lucy Holbrook
• Who will succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor?
Zac Goldsmith. Despite Sadiq’s strong campaigning skills I just can’t see him doing enough to win the support of the crucial outer London boroughs.
• How will Labour perform in the local and devolved elections?
Not as well as they should do 6 years into opposition. The results in Wales and Scotland are likely to be particularly damning – losing seats to UKIP in Wales and failing to make gains on the SNP in Scotland.
• Will there be an EU referendum this year?
Given this government’s record on ducking controversial issues I think not.
• What do you currently think will be the result of the referendum?
It’ll be close but the ‘ins’ will just edge it. I expect it to be 55/ 45 in favour of staying put.
• Will all of the Party Leaders still have their jobs at the end of 2016?
Possibly not. The PM’s position will be dependent on whether the EU referendum takes place and what the outcome is. Corbyn may struggle on through the year but his ability to control the parliamentary Labour Party and his Cabinet and potentially disappointing election results will no doubt help mobilise his critics and apply further pressure.
• Who will be the US President? And who will they defeat?
It’s likely to be a rerun of Clinton vs Bush but a long run of primaries and campaigns ahead of us mean it could go either way
• How many gold medals will GB win in Rio?
Without the home advantage of 2012 I predict we’ll pick up 23 gold medals.
• Who will win Euro 2016?
Germany
Ellie Riddles
• Who will succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor?
Sadiq Khan
• How will Labour perform in the local and devolved elections?
Badly
• Will there be an EU referendum this year?
No
• What do you currently think will be the result of the referendum?
UK remains in the EU
• Will all of the Party Leaders still have their jobs at the end of 2016?
No – Corbyn will resign
• Who will be the US President? And who will they defeat?
Hilary Clinton – defeating Donald Trump!
• How many gold medals will GB win in Rio?
21
• Who will win Euro 2016?
Northern Ireland (go teaaam!)
